First half of the article

THE aim of a leader should be the welfare of the people whom he leads. I have used ‘welfare’ to denote the physical, mental and spiritual well-being of the people—Chief Obafemi Awolowo in his 1967 address to Western leaders of thought in Ibadan. On that premise, today’s intervention serves two purposes: a response to President Bola Tinubu’s Independence Day Address and a continuation of my structural amendment to former Vice President Atiku Abubakar’s production-subsidy proposal.

Mr President told us that “the emergency treatment is over”, and now begins the “age of prosperity”. I submit that while Nigeria may have achieved macroeconomic stabilisation, inclusive prosperity cannot exist without energy availability and affordability at the grassroots. I will show this through the ledger of three Nigerian teachers, using illustrative profiles with plausible salary benchmarks.

Fundamentals

Energy availability is reliable access to electricity, petrol, diesel, or compressed natural gas (CNG) to power households, transportation, and productive activities. It is central to energy security, where supply meets demand through distribution networks. Energy affordability is the capacity to pay for energy without sacrificing food, healthcare, housing and other necessities. This requires bringing the structural cost of essential energy within reach, not merely raising salaries. For a poor but resource-endowed Nigeria, the security and equity dimensions of the energy trilemma—expressed practically as availability and affordability—are urgent. Sustainability matters too, but these two are foundational.

The International Energy Agency’s July report projects coal at 32.94 per cent of global electricity generation in 2026—the largest single source even as renewables collectively overtake it. The global system still depends on a diverse energy mix. Should Nigeria not?

The grassroots middle class under the lens

Mrs Yewande Tinubu, a Level 10 Accounting teacher at Iragbiji Grammar School, Osun State, earns ₦160,000 monthly. Mallam Ibrahim Shettima, a Level 9 English teacher at Jere High School, Borno State, earns ₦150,000. Miss Chinwe Okeke, a Level 8 Chemistry teacher at Aguleri Community High School, Anambra State, earns ₦135,000. Parents entrust these teachers with educating their children—the future leaders of Nigeria. Their work continues after school: marking scripts, preparing lessons and researching curricula. They pay taxes and represent Nigeria’s productive grassroots middle class.

Mr President, here is the brutal reality of your abrupt first-day declaration that “fuel subsidy is gone”, before sufficient protections had been put in place for workers like these. Let us use conservative assumptions. Over 22 school days, each teacher commutes five kilometres each way, totalling 220 kilometres monthly. In a 2005 Toyota Corolla averaging 7.8 litres/100 km, that requires 17.16 litres of petrol. At home, 82 hours of professional work monthly on an “I better pass my neighbour” generator assumed to consume 0.60 litres/hour requires another 49.2 litres. At ₦1,350 per litre, generation costs ₦66,420 monthly and commuting ₦23,166. Each teacher spends ₦89,586 monthly on 66.36 litres of petrol for school and preparatory work at home—before food, rent, healthcare, phone and internet data.

Unreliable grid supply makes petrol generators necessary. Teachers servicing car loans may struggle to finance solar-inverter systems. CNG conversion costs ₦350,000–₦600,000—two to five months of salary—and CNG access remains sparse in these locations. In these illustrative profiles, Miss Okeke’s productive-energy costs consume 66.4% of her gross salary. She survives partly on remittances from her big brother, Chinedu, in the UK while awaiting admission to a foreign university—one more young science teacher preparing to join the brain drain. For Mallam Shettima, with two wives and four young children, energy consumes 59.7 per cent of his salary; for Mrs Tinubu, a single mother of three who lost her husband to kidney disease, 56.0 per cent. Both would need additional income, compromising the attention they can devote to their classrooms.

For a more conservative test, suppose Shettima rides a fuel-efficient Bajaj Boxer. At 55 km/litre, his monthly commuting bill falls from ₦23,166 to ₦5,400, yet his productive-energy cost remains ₦71,820—47.9 per cent of salary. The motorcycle lowers cost but increases road-crash exposure. Mr President, how exactly do you plan to bring prosperity to…

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